Eeben Barlow's Military and Security Blog
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FAILING TO LISTEN
24 Mar 2013 | 11:04 pmAs has become quite usual and an almost daily occurrence, rebel forces throughout central Africa have gained momentum and succeeded in defeating government forces. Often, the government forces appear to be very well trained in running away whilst the rebel forces appear to be better trained, have more cohesion, are better armed and even have better mobility than the government forces. I am also amazed at how easily - and quickly - governments dismiss intelligence in favour of disinformation. Could it be that they believe the “advice” given them by foreign governments or so-called “subject matter experts” is more credible than that given by people who do actually have “ears on the ground”? The escalation of tensions in the so-called Great Lakes region is a fine example of governments’ failure to listen. It appears they are advised to adopt the ostrich approach (sticking their heads in the sand and hoping the problem will simply go away) – an approach that is apparently becoming the norm. This approach apparently assures governments that the problem will indeed “go away” if it is simply ignored. Often these rumours are clustered around other rumours that give credibility to the false sense of security that an interested party is trying to develop. Selected “leaks” to the media result in these rumour-clusters being given more credibility – and this is then fed back to the government as fact “as the media said so”. The end-result is that when they finally pull their heads out of[…]
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THE “SPECIALISTS”
8 Mar 2013 | 7:23 amIt would almost be funny were it not so sad. I come across many people on an almost-daily basis that have travelled from beyond the continent to Africa to witness “first-hand” the problems the continent has. Some are businessmen, some are academics, some are members of NGOs and some are from foreign government PMCs. Almost to a man (or woman), they become “specialists” in African politics and security-related matters only a few days after having set foot on the continent. They firmly believe that they understand our problems better than we do, they have all the solutions and know exactly how our future will look if only we would listen to them. They question but then immediately disregard the answers they get as it does not match with their perceived reality – which is often totally removed from our reality. It is not uncommon to get a response to an answer to the effect that “No, you are wrong. I read on … (chose your search engine) what your problems are” Many of these newly-born specialists may be well-meaning in their intentions but their actions often result in fuelling already volatile situations or they grossly miscalculate the diverse and complex environment they have entered. But being specialists, they believe they can solve the problem they themselves created and then make it even worse. Apart from the many tourists that visit Africa, everyone else has one goal tied to their visit: to make money. On the surface, there is nothing wrong[…]
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AN APOLOGY FROM EXECUTIVE OUTCOMES PROTECTIVE SERVICES
12 Feb 2013 | 3:41 amIn early June 2012, Jason alerted me to a company posing as the reborn Executive Outcomes. Not only did Executive Outcomes Protective Services (EOPS) imply that they traced their origins back to the real EO, they also claimed that I had died...These lies were placed on their website (www.eopssecurity.com) In response to these fraudulent claims, I posted my view on the matter on my blog on 11 June 2012. See http://eebenbarlowsmilitaryandsecurityblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/my-early-demiseby-eops.html I also asked a certain Mr M Dominguez to respond to my questions on my untimely death. He never did. I was once again alerted to EOPS by Jason who directed me to an entry at http://wolfesteel2000.blogspot.com/2012/09/eeben-barlow.html submitted by Charles Wolfe, the newly appointed Regional Manager for the notorious EOPS. His apology on the net reads as follows: Eeben Barlow On behalf of Executive Outcome Protective Services I would like to apologize for the way our website has been written. Mr. Dominguez greatly regrets not speaking to anyone for advise on how the Company History should have been written. E.O.P.S. had no intentions of portraying that our employees came from your founded EO company. Mr. Dominguez was very inspired by your professionalism and dedication and wanted only to be portrayed in the same manner. We have great respect for what you have done in South Africa and abroad, and would like for you to understand what we are trying to accomplish here in South Florida by providing security services with the same mindset and goals such as yours. I will be changing the way[…]
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HAPPY CHINESE NEW YEAR 2013
11 Feb 2013 | 4:52 amI apologise for being late this year in wishing my Chinese friends a very happy New Year – a traditional Chinese celebration that began yesterday, 10 February 2013. The Chinese New Year (also known as the Lunar New Year) takes place in the early months of our calendar year, typically in January or February. In 2013, the Lunar New Year began on 10th February and its beginning marks 15 days of celebration and the start of the Year of the Snake. The celebrations will culminate in the Lantern Festival on 25th February. According to Chinese tradition, each year is dedicated to a specific animal, these being the following 12 animals: Boar, Dragon, Dog, Horse, Monkey, Ox, Rat, Rabbit, Ram, Rooster, Snake and Tiger. It is believed that each of these animals bestow their characteristics to the people born in their year. The Year of the Snake (2013) heralds the end of the Year of the Dragon (2012). May you all have a very happy, healthy and prosperous Year of the Snake. Gong Xi Fa Ca and Gong Hei Fa Choi!
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USING HUMOUR TO COPE AND SURVIVE
23 Jan 2013 | 2:05 am
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I remember clearing for mines around a young soldier who had just stepped
on an anti-personnel mine. His broken body had been dragged him into the shade
of a tree and the medic was gently tending to his injuries and bandaging him up.
The injured soldier was a good tennis player and he had just lost a leg.
Another sapper, eating some bully beef out of a tin with a stick, ambled
over to his injured friend. In shock and
in pain, the injured man, understandably too scared to look at his injuries
asked the sapper “Is it bad?”
His friend the sapper knelt down next to him and said: “Always
look on the bright side – in future you only need to buy one “takkie” (tennis
shoe)”.
This remark was made without malice or flippantly. It is the way
soldiers talk to cope with the horrors they need to deal with. Living on the
edge gives rise to a dark sense of humour only those who have been there can fully
appreciate and even understand.
It therefore shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise to find
some in the media complaining about recent photo of a French soldier wearing a
skeleton mask. Wearing a mask or a scarf to protect one from the dust and
debris is rather normal. The fact that his mask resembles a skull is part of the
dark humour soldiers develop. It keeps them going.
Photo by Issouf Sanogo, AFP
What did they[…] -
ISN'T IT TIME TO ASK QUESTIONS?
22 Jan 2013 | 6:23 amSome of my Nigerian friends and I were discussing the situation in Mali and the apparent lack of good advice, intelligence, strategy, training, intelligence forecasting and threat analysis that led to the current situation there. Virtually everything required to make a government strong, secure the state and protect the populace was sorely lacking. (To the folks who asked me about Mali, www.beegeagle.wordpress.com will be able to offer a lot of insight into the current efforts in West Africa and Mali. My friend “Beegeagle” runs this very popular blog - 10 000 visits a day should give an idea of its popularity). During these discussions, I suggested that it is time for African governments to begin asking some very hard questions, especially in terms of some of the “free” advice and training governments and their armed forces are given. After all, even the SANDF has “benefitted” from some of this advice and training. But, back to Mali where a very simplistic background is as follows: The geo-political, economical and threat changes, challenges and developments that have taken place since the so-called Arab Spring have impacted severely on both North and West Africa. The pre-coup Malian government was certainly not as pure as the driven snow. As early as 2003, the former President of Mali allegedly allowed extremist control of the North whilst allegedly raking in huge sums of money from narco-trafficking and ransom payments. Added to this was the issue of depleted land resources – one reason for Tuareg discontent with the[…]
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WHY THE ARMED FORCES FAIL AT COIN
1 Jan 2013 | 12:51 amThe armed forces can, despite their relative strengths in terms of manpower, firepower and other resources, fail at effectively neutralising and destroying an armed insurgency. The reasons for these failures include, inter alia, the following: 1. Lack of support: When the armed forces are tasked to respond to an insurgency, they need maximum government support to achieve mission-success. This support extends beyond mere political and moral support but also in terms of providing it with the equipment and resources it requires. A lack of support from government will result in a lack of determination from the armed forces to accomplish their mission. Similarly, a lack of support from the local populace will cost the armed forces dearly in terms of manpower, intelligence, national support and may result in the populace giving support to the insurgents. 2. Lack of intelligence: A lack of sound and credible intelligence at the strategic level will impede the armed forces’ strategy to counter the coming insurgency whilst at the operational and tactical levels it will restrict the armed forces’ efforts to plan and execute effective COIN operations. Intelligence must provide clear options on where, when and how actions can be conducted and with what force levels. Misappreciating the enemy will result in poor plans and efforts to locate and destroy the enemy and add to the enemy’s momentum. Additionally, a lack of intelligence will lead to unclear and vague orders. A lack of intelligence also prevents knowing the enemy – a crucial factor in defeating[…]
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A BLESSED FESTIVE SEASON TO ALL
23 Dec 2012 | 5:21 amI have sadly, over the past few months, been unable to maintain my blog as I would have wanted to. I have also been unable to respond to the numerous comments and mails I have received via the blog. For that I apologise. I will, however, get through all of them in the next couple of days. Those comments that are aimed to finding out if I am still okay, although highly appreciated, will not be posted – not because they hold no value but because they are personal in nature. I would like to make use of this opportunity to wish each and every visitor to the blog a blessed festive season. To those who celebrate the true meaning of Christmas, I wish you and your families a blessed, happy and joyous festive season. To my many Muslim friends as well as those friends who do not celebrate Christmas for whatever reason, I wish you a time of peace and joy with your families and friends. To everyone who is far from home over this time, and to those who are deployed in the conflict zones around the world, beit as soldiers, sailors, airmen, law enforcement officers, spooks or PMC contractors, keep your heads down, your eyes peeled, your weapons close at hand and be ready to do what needs to be done. As another hectic year filled with adrenalin rushes, expectations, waiting, laughter, happiness, satisfaction, blood, sweat and tears winds down, let us also remember those who will[…]
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THE PASSING OF A GENERAL
14 Nov 2012 | 1:31 am
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The recent passing of Lt Gen R (Witkop) Badenhorst, SSAS, SD, SM, MMM came as a great shock to me.
I served under Gen Badenhorst when he was the sector commander of
Sector 10 in then-South West Africa (now Namibia) and frequently reported to
him or briefed him on 32 Bn’s reconnaissance operations. Regardless of the rank
I held, he simply called me “Sapper”.
Whenever I was told to report to him, I felt both nervous and
scared as he was known to be extremely cantankerous. He was a strict
disciplinarian, set very high standards and took no nonsense – not even from
his seniors in the armed forces or from politicians – especially politicians as
he held them in very low regard.
In later years, he became the Chief of Logistics and then the
Chief of Military Intelligence. As a member of MI at the time he was the chief,
I did everything in my power to avoid him. Mostly, I was successful.
In later life, after he retired, our paths crossed again and we
frequently had breakfast together and discussed all things military. Past
operations, mistakes made, lessons learnt, political ineptness and the book I
was writing about Executive Outcomes became the main topics of discussion. When
he offered to write the foreword for my EO book, I was surprised, excited and honoured.
When I was invited to travel to an African country to discuss
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BEFORE I GO...
27 Sep 2012 | 12:01 pmI was pointed to the Wikipedia pages on Executive Outcomes and it seems rather odd that Sterling Corporate Services has now been placed on the EO pages with great fanfare along with the statement that a: “UN report from July 2012 criticised the South African security company Sterling Corporate Services for assembling a “private army” in defiance of international agreements and also of Somalian sanctions. The report was conducted by the UN’s Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea (SEMG) and revealed strong links to Executive Outcomes”. Whereas I knew that the UN is dumb, I never realised just how dumb they are. In case they are wondering about my comment, EO closed its doors in 1998. However, as I understand it, Sterling did a good job and would have continued doing a good job had the UN not felt so threatened and taken pity on the pirates. And no, I have nothing to do with Sterling - nor does EO as it closed its doors 14 years ago. Apart from that, there was a very good article in the recent Foreign Policy on how the UN saved the Somali pirates from extinction (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/20/how_the_un_saved_the_somali_pirates?page=full). But, as EO severely embarrassed the UN in both Angola and Sierra Leone, it is no wonder they are still smarting. Their actions prove that they want conflict to continue – I hope African governments take note of the hidden aims behind the UN’s claims of “peacekeeping”. Ironically, someone also removed the comment from the EO pages that[…]
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BLOG SLOW-DOWN
27 Sep 2012 | 9:02 amMy apologies to all followers for taking so long to respond to your comments as well as my tardiness in posting something new. I have been incredibly busy and will be unable to do much until approximately mid-October. If all goes “according to plan” I will be back and writing again by mid-October. However, as you all know, a plan is a basis for change...and the only thing in life that does not change is change. My best wishes to you all.
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THE PERCEPTION PILLAR
9 Sep 2012 | 6:06 amI believe that the integrity of the state – as well as its legitimacy – rests on 7 pillars. I refer to these pillars as the Pillars of State. By eroding or neutralising two or more of these pillars, the state becomes weak and unstable and its influence is reduced to the point where it faces a serious threat that may lead to collapse. Perceptions determine the view people have of the world, their region and their surroundings. This view is, by and large, developed and injected into society by and through the media either through objective reporting or through propaganda. As such, the influence of the media on the perceptions of the populace and by implication the perceptions of the populace on the state must not be underestimated. In its role as a perception-creator, the media can play either a positive role in supporting the state’s messages and policies or eroding its credibility and thereby negatively influence both foreign policy and investment. The media does, however, need to remain objective, report facts and not abuse its potential power of propaganda. The mainstream audio, visual and written media can play an enormous role in shaping both national and international public opinion and perceptions and can wittingly or unwittingly erode the Pillars of State. Social media platforms such as blogs, instant messaging, social networking services and so forth can be used to rapidly reach millions of followers and incite ethnic, racial or religious tensions as well as instigate actions[…]
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ANOTHER SPECIAL FORCES/EO WANNABE SHOWS HIMSELF – WITH THE HELP OF A “JOURNALIST”
2 Sep 2012 | 3:11 amI have never been able to understand why some people feel the need to claim an association with a company or with people they have never met. I suppose it is either because they have a very low self-esteem or they believe they will never be caught out as no one will ever come to the fore and expose them for what they are – sad, pathetic people. The vast majority of these “self-confessed heroes” would not last a single day with the real men they boast they were part of. If I were to spend my time exposing all of these conmen and wannabees (it seems there are thousands who claim to have been in EO), I would have to remain glued to my computer – something I have no intention of doing. However, some of these pathetic wannabees simply need more exposing than others. Equally pathetic are the journalists who lap up the lies these fools tell them and then publish them as “the truth”. In this day and age, one would think that someone who has qualified at the London School of Journalism with Distinction in 2001 – who has access to the internet – and is an author, would at least have the drive and integrity to do some fact-checking before publishing an article, not so, Simon Tomlin? It seems to get worse when the said journalist is an ex-army man who suffers from what appears to be a very severe persecution complex. Tomlin wrote[…]
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EXECUTIVE OUTCOMES: FOUR BALL ONE TRACER
24 Aug 2012 | 8:11 amFor many years, Executive Outcomes was – and still is - the target of a web of lies, deception and blatant disinformation by those who were deeply concerned that we might prevent countries in Africa from imploding and whose sole interest was the destruction of the continent for economical and other gain. A quick Google search will reveal just how many lies are out there on the company. Granted, the media did finally publish an apology for being the mouthpiece of a massive disinformation campaign but it was a little too late as far as I was concerned. Some of these despicable, lying, self-serving members of society who jumped on the bandwagon under the banner of “journalist” had, however, effectively played their role in ensuring the longevity of terrorist groups and insurgents – at the cost of many hundreds of thousands of lives. They also very successfully contributed to the bad name many true journalists have to endure. When I finally wrote my account of Executive Outcomes (EO), it was primarily to give my version of events – a version which unlike the media’s and the intelligence services’, was based on company documents, interviews as well as video and audio recordings of many of the men who were part of EO or senior government officials who EO had worked for. After my book was published, I continued to hope and wish that someone who was at the forefront of EO’s operations in the field would follow suit and document their[…]
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THREAT PREDICTION
22 Aug 2012 | 9:12 amThreat prediction is a vital pre-requisite of strategy development. It can, however, be a difficult and problematic task if the intelligence analysts as well as the planners and strategists do not have accurate intelligence at hand, do not understand the historical trends that have manifested over time, and do not understand the political strategies of their own government and those of the target country or target grouping. If the intelligence services do not utilise all available resources at their disposal, and cultivate new resources where intelligence gaps exist, they will directly contribute to intelligence failures. Intelligence failures can, in turn, lead to misjudging the enemy, doctrinal failures and faulty or disjointed threat predictions and subsequently poor, unrealistic or irrelevant strategies. The value of threat prediction and its analysis is that it provides benchmarks and indicators that can be used to constantly assess and re-adjust the overall military strategy. The need for flexibility in the developing military strategy is vital in order to prevent a tunnel-vision view of the threats a government may be facing. The nature of modern warfare and, more broadly, armed conflict has changed dramatically from the classical or historical perspective of war. The days of two opposing armies meeting one another on an open field to engage in a classical conventional battle are, for the time being, long gone. Although the ever-present threat of a conventional land, sea and air battle will always remain very real, modern war and/or conflict may be characterised by many different concepts[…]
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